WASHINGTON: Washington Moscow has suspended the nuclear arms treaty. There is potential for China to militarize Russia is a possibility. Russian military.
As it was the U.S. and its allies were celebrating this week, which marked the fact that Russia has been stopped so far in its attempts to control Ukraine however, certain events could have consequences much more than whether Kyiv is able to remain in the game.
If the last arms agreement between the world’s two biggest nuclear powers fails then there will be no limitations to U.S. and Russian nuclear forces for the first time since the 1970s. The risk of a nuclear attack whether it was planned or not could increase.
“A world without nuclear arms control is a far more dangerous and unstable one,” declared U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
If China transforms its diplomatic and economic support to Russia in full-on military support this would represent a significant change in the way China has been able to conduct its foreign policy, thereby increasing tensions already high between China and the U.S. and China and increasing the risk of war in the world.
“It would also return us to…the kind of things we saw in the Cold War where you have all these major countries interfering in conflicts and proxy wars,” said Brian Hart, who studies the changing characteristics of Chinese power at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Here’s what you should be aware of:
What was Russia do?
Russian Vladimir Putin, Russian president Vladimir Putin announced Tuesday he has suspended Moscow’s participation in New START, the last remaining nuclear arms reduction agreement with the U.S. and Russia. It restricts the number of nuclear warheads Russia as well as both the U.S. can have, which includes those that be delivered to their destination in the U.S. in about 30 minutes.
What’s the concern?
If arms control is not in place, the U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals could increase by a factor of two in the opinion of the Federation of American Scientists. Each country could drastically and swiftly increase the number of nuclear weapons that are ready to be launched at short notice According to Hans M. Kristensen, director of the organization’s Nuclear Information Project.
“Such an increase would be extraordinarily destabilizing and dangerous, especially with a full-scale war raging in Europe and Russia buckling under the strain of unprecedented sanctions,” Kristensen wrote in the year 2000.
Is it time to panic?
No. Putin hasn’t yet pulled out of the deal.
He has said that Russia will not participate in inspections or other mechanisms that ensure the strictness of nuclear weapons. However, Russia’s Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow will respect the treaty’s arms limits. There’s no indication that Putin will soon produce new weapons, as per Joe Cirincione, an arms control expert who is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Cirincione believes Putin is inciting the nuclear specter to frighten Ukraine’s allies.
“He understands that he’s losing this war,” Cirincione stated on MSNBC. “He has to convince Western publics that they risk nuclear war by continuing to aid Ukraine.”
Hasn’t Putin done this before
Yes. Putin has placed Russian nuclear forces to be placed on combat alert in a short time after invading Ukraine in February. In December, he stated that Russia will keep maintaining and increasing the combat capability of nuclear weapons that could be fired from the air, land, and at sea.
“Russian President Vladimir Putin has come to rely on nuclear weapons for coercion and bullying and will continue to make nuclear threats,” Heather Williams and experts in arms control of the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote in a recent study. “The West may not be able to stop Putin from threatening to use nuclear weapons, but countries can work to prevent him from following through on those threats.”
Even even if the latest Putin move is an attempt to play the game, according to Ben Rhodes, who was the top national security advisor to President Barack Obama, “it does just point to the fact that we’re in this kind of period of escalation with Russia where we don’t quite know where it’s going to end.”
What’s going on with China?
Since the war, China has helped Russia economically by buying its gas and oil. China has also offered Russia drones as well as microchips, and other technologies which have military and commercial applications. However, Beijing hasn’t permitted Russia to purchase guns, ammunition or artillery drones, and other weapons.
It could be different. Some top Biden administration officials told reporters this week that they have information that suggests China may be looking at offering lethal assistance to Russia.
In reply to the Chinese protest, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman accused the U.S. of “chasing shadows and smearing China.”
Although it’s true that the White House hasn’t made its findings public, the cautions are similar to the administration’s intelligence prior to the invasion about Putin’s plans.
What is the reason why China directly assists Russia?
The conflict in Ukraine has in many ways been beneficial for China according to Hart from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. It has led to Russia more dependent upon China and has also displeased the U.S. – China’s main competitor. However, China isn’t willing for Russia the most powerful partner in the world arena, to be hit on affected by the conflict.
“Overall Beijing’s adherence to Russia is in the first place driven by a common concern about China’s relationship with the United States and competing with the United States. The more direct rivalry among Beijing and Washington and Washington, the more likely you’ll feel a need for Beijing to strengthen its ties to Moscow,” he said. “That’s the triangle that they’re facing.”
How do you think to react the U.S. react?
The Biden administration has warned of “severe consequences” if China aids Russia to replenish its military supply.
“We’ll not hesitate to target Chinese companies or individuals that violate our sanctions,” said State Department spokesman Ned Price.
Its economic situation is in trouble. However, major sanctions against China which is the largest economic player than Russia could also trigger negative effects on other nations, including the U.S. and other nations.
What does it mean to the geopolitical order?
China’s involvement directly would signal an important shift in its strategy for foreign relations. It would be so alarming it China expert Oriana Skylar Mastro has said that she’d “have to rethink everything I know about China.”
China has seen the U.S.’s military operations abroad as costly endeavors which haven’t made China feel that the U.S. is more powerful. China has taken a different stance.
“I would be much less concerned about what it means for Ukraine and much more concerned about what it means for the world if we’re dealing with a China now that engages in intervention and foreign conflicts, which is a key thing that they have argued for decades and decades is the reason for the U.S. decline, is a stupid thing to do, something that they would never do,” she added.
However, should China makes that dramatic shift, said Mastro who is a fellow at Stanford University’s American Enterprise Institute and at Stanford University, it would “absolutely” make the world an even more dangerous place.
Although China makes it more difficult to the U.S. to coerce autocrats by, for instance participating in sanctions, she explained, “that’s very different from them actively providing support.”
A new Cold War?
Tensions are rising between the U.S. and China as has been a major source of tension for the U.S. considers its biggest strategic and economic rival. Prior to the time, the Biden administration was able to shoot down the Chinese surveillance balloon near the shores in South Carolina this month, China and the United States have fought over Taiwan technology and human rights, as well as Russia’s invading Ukraine and other concerns.
Biden administration has been working to improve relations and has been constructing what’s known as “guardrails” as it normalizes interactions. However, it’s becoming increasingly challenging.
“We have to make sure that the competition that we’re clearly engaged in does not veer into conflict, into a new Cold War,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” when discussing the latest threat. “It’s certainly not our interests. I’m not going to discuss it with them, yet it’s certainly not in our interest.”
In a vague proposal, China released on Friday, calling to hold peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia as well as calling for the end of “Cold War mentality” -the Chinese term used to describe what it views as U.S. Hegemony and the maintenance of alliances like NATO.
